Hmmm so I was completely lost on what the merchant was trying to do besides just simply make money. Lemme summarize what the merchant was interested in, and what his planned actions and explanations were:
The merchant first asked his assistant about the Southern Traid's political response to refusing to give up Maoyu and the Central Nation's response to it. The conversation then moved to a flashback about the development of paper and the printing press and realized that Maoyu's plan was finally coming to fruition. Anticipating war, the merchant instructed his assistant to do the following:
Find out the assets of the central nations.
Next he asked about wheat, along with iron ingots, charcoal, silver all in anticipation of the war to come.
Specifically regarding wheat:
Buy at 100 points until next week
Buy up to 250 points until the end of next month
Then he explained the goal was not really buying wheat but to sell currency. Though I think the merchant was really making an emphasis of two sides of the same coin. On one side, he's buying up all the wheat, which would increase the prices, especially since there's a shortage from the Central Nation recession. And on the other side of the coin, he's getting rid of currency (selling it for wheat), since that currency will become less valuable from the rising wheat prices.
As the merchant continues buying wheat(8:57) he gauges their reactions. The merchant than introduces the idea of "product purchase agreement" or a futures contract and explains the benefits of it. Being 1) If wheat does poorly, he already bought it at a better price in anticipation of increasing prices 2) Even if war does not rise wheat prices, by buying up all the wheat he creates artificial scarcity, increasing the price of wheat anyways
The merchant then explains the goal is to the keep the Central Nation's nobility thinking of next year's wheat market. He explains that since if they're concerned about not having much wheat to sell but also not much to eat, that fear will cause nobles to want to buy the futures contract of wheat he bought for cheap, at a higher price, earning him profit.
Lastly, he tells his assistant to move the HQ in preparation for the next step. Not sure what he's referring to.
However, he does say he intends to make the central nobility "enjoy a long, long winter." Which I take to mean, make them become concerned about next year's crop, and keep buying the futures contracts that he sells to them.
The results: Wheat increased 64 points.
His instructions after this were to use fast horses and try to sell the wheat purchase agreements (futures contracts) as quickly as possible to the larger landholders.
The Merchant also observes that the Councilor's supporting the Central church won't agree to any more wheat purchases. I'm unsure if he's referring to the futures or to actual wheat but I believe he's referring to actual wheat. Though regardless, some how it's preventing him from continuing the "waltz" of buying, selling, and exchanging. He was planning on using the Black Hand behind the scenes to keep them from intervening and then going all out "in the open" I guess.
Overall, I don't think the summary really gives any good clues on how making a lot of money off wheat except for the one comment about giving the nobles a very long long winter. Which brings me to the quote form the forums which I think most succinctly gives the best explanation:
Axxen said:
So a lot of you seem to be wondering what the Merchant is up to, well lets go over what some parts of his plan are: Hes buying up all Central nations wheat, while also giving out these future transactons which will flush the Central nobles with spare cash. The nobles will then use the cash to quickly fund an army to fight the Southern nations (This part requires timing, since they will have made an army right as Winter begins) Now all Southern nations have to do is stall them, and have winter do their work for them, and the Central army will have no wheat to use for food for their army (Since Merchant bought them all up) and they'll have no gold to buy more wheat (they spent it all on their army and wheat prices have skyrocketed) An army, fighting without food AND in a snowy winter climate will be forced to retreat until warmer climates, which will buy Southern nations time until Demon Queen comes back......and ALL of this plan is happening while Merchant is making a ton of cash.
So a lot of you seem to be wondering what the Merchant is up to, well lets go over what some parts of his plan are: Hes buying up all Central nations wheat, while also giving out these future transactons which will flush the Central nobles with spare cash. The nobles will then use the cash to quickly fund an army to fight the Southern nations (This part requires timing, since they will have made an army right as Winter begins) Now all Southern nations have to do is stall them, and have winter do their work for them, and the Central army will have no wheat to use for food for their army (Since Merchant bought them all up) and they'll have no gold to buy more wheat (they spent it all on their army and wheat prices have skyrocketed) An army, fighting without food AND in a snowy winter climate will be forced to retreat until warmer climates, which will buy Southern nations time until Demon Queen comes back......and ALL of this plan is happening while Merchant is making a ton of cash.